All matches

Club Universidad Nacional — Cruz Azul FC, Liga MX

Mexico, Liga MX

Club Universidad Nacional
2.2LDLWL
—
Cruz Azul FC
3.3DLWWW
Outcome probability
352738
Club Universidad Nacional35%Draw27%Cruz Azul FC38%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Club Universidad Nacional35%2.87—
XDraw27%3.73—
2Cruz Azul FC38%2.61—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.67

No40%

ours 2.50

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricClub Universidad NacionalCruz Azul FCCombined
Goals scored1.171.833.00
Conceded1.831.673.50
Corners11.312.311.8
Cards1.32.23.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Club Universidad NacionalCruz Azul FC
    12Table position7
    44.80%Possession52.30%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Cruz Azul FC travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 38%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 2.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Club Universidad Nacional

  • homeAtlético San Luis2:3
  • awayCSyD Atlas de Guadalajara1:1
  • awayCD Guadalajara0:3
  • homeClub León3:1
  • awayClub Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente0:2

Cruz Azul FC

  • homeDeportivo Toluca FC3:3
  • awayCF Monterrey0:1
  • homeClub América4:3
  • homeClub Santos Laguna1:0
  • awayClub Necaxa3:1

Head to head

  • 05/25/26Liga MX1:2
  • 05/22/26Liga MX0:0
  • 03/15/26Liga MX2:2
  • 11/09/25Liga MX3:2
  • 04/06/25Liga MX2:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5Club León1052314:1117
6CSyD Atlas de Guadalajara1052316:1717
7Cruz Azul FC1051419:1816
8Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente942314:1314
9Puebla FC1042411:1214
10CF Monterrey941416:1413
11CF Pachuca1033415:1112
12Club Universidad Nacional1033414:1612
13Atlético San Luis1033414:1812
14Club Atlante1025312:1511

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.