All matches

Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente — Puebla FC, Liga MX

Mexico, Liga MX

Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente
2.2LDLWL
—
Puebla FC
0.8LDLWL
Outcome probability
642115
Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente64%Draw21%Puebla FC15%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente64%1.55—
XDraw21%4.84—
2Puebla FC15%6.70—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes48%

ours 2.06

No52%

ours 1.94

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricClub Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de CalientePuebla FCCombined
Goals scored1.330.331.66
Conceded1.830.832.66
Corners12.011.411.7
Cards1.41.42.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de CalientePuebla FC
    6.2Days of rest7.1
    8Table position9
    46.60%Possession46.60%
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 64%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 2.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente

  • homeCSyD Atlas de Guadalajara2:3
  • awayCF Pachuca2:2
  • homeQuerétaro FC0:1
  • homeClub Universidad Nacional2:0
  • awayCD Guadalajara2:5

Puebla FC

  • awayTigres UANL0:1
  • homeClub Atlante1:1
  • homeDeportivo Toluca FC0:1
  • awayClub Necaxa1:0
  • awayClub América0:2

Head to head

  • 02/07/26Liga MX0:0
  • 10/18/25Liga MX3:4
  • 02/22/25Liga MX0:2
  • 11/11/24Liga MX2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6CSyD Atlas de Guadalajara1052316:1717
7Cruz Azul FC1051419:1816
8Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente942314:1314
9Puebla FC1042411:1214
10CF Monterrey941416:1413
11CF Pachuca1033415:1112

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.