All matches

Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente — Club Santos Laguna, Liga MX

Mexico, Liga MX

Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente
2.2LDLWL
—
Club Santos Laguna
0.5WWWLD
Outcome probability
661914
Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente66%Draw19%Club Santos Laguna14%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente66%1.51—
XDraw19%5.13—
2Club Santos Laguna14%7.00—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.78

No44%

ours 2.28

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricClub Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de CalienteClub Santos LagunaCombined
Goals scored0.671.001.67
Conceded1.000.501.50
Corners14.315.014.7
Cards1.72.34.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de CalienteClub Santos Laguna
    8Table position16
    45.00%Possession54.00%
    4.1Days of rest4
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 66%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 5.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente

  • homeCSyD Atlas de Guadalajara2:3
  • awayCF Pachuca2:2
  • homeQuerétaro FC0:1
  • homeClub Universidad Nacional2:0
  • awayCD Guadalajara2:5

Club Santos Laguna

  • homeCF Pachuca1:0
  • awayDeportivo Toluca FC3:2
  • homeFC Juárez2:1
  • awayCruz Azul FC0:1
  • homeTigres UANL0:0

Head to head

  • 03/09/26Liga MX1:2
  • 09/25/25Liga MX0:1
  • 04/20/25Liga MX4:0
  • 08/19/24Liga MX3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6CSyD Atlas de Guadalajara1052316:1717
7Cruz Azul FC1051419:1816
8Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente942314:1314
9Puebla FC1042411:1214
10CF Monterrey941416:1413
11CF Pachuca1033415:1112
12Club Universidad Nacional1033414:1612
13Atlético San Luis1033414:1812
14Club Atlante1025312:1511
15Tigres UANL1024410:1310
16Club Santos Laguna1031610:1510
17Club Necaxa1022612:208
18FC Juárez101097:253

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.