All matches

Club Sporting Cristal SAC — Club Alianza Lima, Primera División

Peru, Primera División

Club Sporting Cristal SAC
2.7WWWLL
—
Club Alianza Lima
3.4WLDLD
Outcome probability
382834
Club Sporting Cristal SAC38%Draw28%Club Alianza Lima34%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Club Sporting Cristal SAC38%2.63—
XDraw28%3.51—
2Club Alianza Lima34%2.98—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.97

No49%

ours 2.03

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricClub Sporting Cristal SACClub Alianza LimaCombined
Goals scored1.670.672.34
Conceded0.330.500.83
Corners14.79.712.2
Cards2.31.03.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Club Sporting Cristal SACClub Alianza Lima
    9Table position1
    2.2Days of rest1.2
    52.00%Possession62.70%
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Club Sporting Cristal SAC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 38%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Club Sporting Cristal SAC

  • homeClub Atlético Grau3:1
  • awayUCV Moquegua2:1
  • homeLos Chankas5:0
  • awaySport Boys Association0:1
  • awayClub Alianza Atlético Sullana1:3

Club Alianza Lima

  • homeAsociación Deportiva Tarma2:0
  • homeClub Universitario de Deportes1:2
  • awayJuan Pablo II College1:1
  • homeClub Deportivo Garcilaso0:1
  • awayFBC Melgar1:1

Head to head

  • 05/10/26Primera División1:1
  • 12/07/25Primera División3:3
  • 12/03/25Primera División1:1
  • 08/06/25Primera División0:0
  • 03/02/25Primera División1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Club Alianza Lima27168344:1856
2Club Universitario de Deportes27147643:3149
3Club Deportivo Garcilaso27146739:2448
4FBC Melgar27137745:2946
5Asociación Civil Real Atlético Garcilaso271431040:3845
6Los Chankas26125935:4441
7Club Cienciano261241045:3940
8Club Alianza Atlético Sullana27117940:3540
9Club Sporting Cristal SAC271151148:4038
10Sport Boys Association27108929:2638
11CD Sport Huancayo271051237:4435

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.