All matches

Club Santos Laguna — Querétaro FC, Liga MX

Mexico, Liga MX

Club Santos Laguna
0.5WWWLD
—
Querétaro FC
1.6WDWWL
Outcome probability
312841
Club Santos Laguna31%Draw28%Querétaro FC41%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Club Santos Laguna31%3.22—
XDraw28%3.63—
2Querétaro FC41%2.41—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes49%

ours 2.05

No51%

ours 1.95

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricClub Santos LagunaQuerétaro FCCombined
Goals scored1.001.332.33
Conceded0.670.671.34
Corners14.613.213.9
Cards2.43.25.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Club Santos LagunaQuerétaro FC
    16Table position4
    51.80%Possession38.60%
    6Days of rest7
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, Querétaro FC still look stronger — an away win is rated at 41%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Club Santos Laguna

  • homeCF Pachuca1:0
  • awayDeportivo Toluca FC3:2
  • homeFC Juárez2:1
  • awayCruz Azul FC0:1
  • homeTigres UANL0:0

Querétaro FC

  • awayCD Guadalajara2:0
  • homeClub León1:1
  • awayClub Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente1:0
  • awayCSyD Atlas de Guadalajara3:1
  • homeDeportivo Toluca FC1:2

Head to head

  • 02/28/26Liga MX2:2
  • 10/26/25Liga MX3:1
  • 04/13/25Liga MX1:2
  • 11/09/24Liga MX2:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Club América962121:1020
3CD Guadalajara1053217:1018
4Querétaro FC952213:817
5Club León1052314:1117
6CSyD Atlas de Guadalajara1052316:1717
7Cruz Azul FC1051419:1816
8Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente942314:1314
9Puebla FC1042411:1214
10CF Monterrey941416:1413
11CF Pachuca1033415:1112
12Club Universidad Nacional1033414:1612
13Atlético San Luis1033414:1812
14Club Atlante1025312:1511
15Tigres UANL1024410:1310
16Club Santos Laguna1031610:1510
17Club Necaxa1022612:208
18FC Juárez101097:253

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.