All matches

Club Santos Laguna — Club Universidad Nacional, Liga MX

Mexico, Liga MX

Club Santos Laguna
0.5WWWLD
—
Club Universidad Nacional
2.2LDLWL
Outcome probability
272647
Club Santos Laguna27%Draw26%Club Universidad Nacional47%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Club Santos Laguna27%3.77—
XDraw26%3.85—
2Club Universidad Nacional47%2.11—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.80

No45%

ours 2.25

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricClub Santos LagunaClub Universidad NacionalCombined
Goals scored1.001.002.00
Conceded0.671.332.00
Corners14.511.813.1
Cards2.01.33.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Club Santos LagunaClub Universidad Nacional
    16Table position12
    4.2Days of rest5
    50.00%Possession44.50%
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, Club Universidad Nacional still look stronger — an away win is rated at 47%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Club Santos Laguna

  • homeCF Pachuca1:0
  • awayDeportivo Toluca FC3:2
  • homeFC Juárez2:1
  • awayCruz Azul FC0:1
  • homeTigres UANL0:0

Club Universidad Nacional

  • homeAtlético San Luis2:3
  • awayCSyD Atlas de Guadalajara1:1
  • awayCD Guadalajara0:3
  • homeClub León3:1
  • awayClub Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente0:2

Head to head

  • 01/31/26Liga MX0:4
  • 07/13/25Liga MX3:0
  • 04/17/25Liga MX0:2
  • 07/14/24Liga MX1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10CF Monterrey941416:1413
11CF Pachuca1033415:1112
12Club Universidad Nacional1033414:1612
13Atlético San Luis1033414:1812
14Club Atlante1025312:1511
15Tigres UANL1024410:1310
16Club Santos Laguna1031610:1510
17Club Necaxa1022612:208
18FC Juárez101097:253

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.