All matches

Club Olimpia — Club Nacional, Division Profesional

Paraguay, Division Profesional

Club Olimpia
3.0WWWWD
—
Club Nacional
2.6DWWLW
Outcome probability
413128
Club Olimpia41%Draw31%Club Nacional28%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Club Olimpia41%2.43—
XDraw31%3.24—
2Club Nacional28%3.58—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes47%

ours 2.13

No53%

ours 1.88

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricClub OlimpiaClub NacionalCombined
Goals scored2.001.833.83
Conceded0.500.330.83
Corners9.811.510.7
Cards2.71.54.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Club OlimpiaClub Nacional
    1Table position2
    8Days of rest11
    53.50%Possession50.20%
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Club Olimpia look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 41%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 10.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Club Olimpia

  • awayClub Libertad1:0
  • awayClub Sportivo San Lorenzo3:0
  • homeClub Sportivo Luqueño3:0
  • awayClub Sportivo Trinidense2:1
  • homeClub Guaraní1:1

Club Nacional

  • homeSportivo Ameliano1:1
  • homeClub 2 de Mayo3:0
  • awayClub Rubio Ñú1:0
  • awayClub Cerro Porteño0:1
  • homeClub Libertad3:0

Head to head

  • 07/29/26Division Profesional0:2
  • 04/04/26Division Profesional3:0
  • 02/08/26Division Profesional2:1
  • 09/14/25Division Profesional1:4
  • 07/06/25Division Profesional1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Club Olimpia33225655:2671
2Club Nacional341613550:2961
3Club Cerro Porteño331671045:3155
4Club Libertad341661253:3954

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.