All matches

Club Nacional — Club Sportivo Trinidense, Division Profesional

Paraguay, Division Profesional

Club Nacional
2.6DWWLW
—
Club Sportivo Trinidense
2.2WLWLW
Outcome probability
423127
Club Nacional42%Draw31%Club Sportivo Trinidense27%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Club Nacional42%2.36—
XDraw31%3.26—
2Club Sportivo Trinidense27%3.72—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes46%

ours 2.15

No54%

ours 1.87

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricClub NacionalClub Sportivo TrinidenseCombined
Goals scored0.830.831.66
Conceded0.170.500.67
Corners13.39.711.5
Cards2.31.33.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Club NacionalClub Sportivo Trinidense
    2Table position5
    52.00%Possession50.00%
    7Days of rest7
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Club Nacional look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 42%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 10.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Club Nacional

  • homeSportivo Ameliano1:1
  • homeClub 2 de Mayo3:0
  • awayClub Rubio Ñú1:0
  • awayClub Cerro Porteño0:1
  • homeClub Libertad3:0

Club Sportivo Trinidense

  • homeClub Cerro Porteño2:1
  • homeClub Guaraní0:1
  • awayCD Recoleta3:1
  • homeClub Olimpia1:2
  • awaySportivo Ameliano3:0

Head to head

  • 08/15/26Division Profesional1:1
  • 05/09/26Division Profesional2:1
  • 03/09/26Division Profesional1:1
  • 11/01/25Division Profesional0:0
  • 08/17/25Division Profesional2:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Club Olimpia33225655:2671
2Club Nacional341613550:2961
3Club Cerro Porteño331671045:3155
4Club Libertad341661253:3954
5Club Sportivo Trinidense3414101050:3552
6Sportivo Ameliano341215741:3451
7Club Guaraní341213940:3249

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.