All matches

Club Nacional de Football — CA Torque, Primera División

Uruguay, Primera División

Club Nacional de Football
3.4WWDDW
—
CA Torque
2.5LWWWW
Outcome probability
472627
Club Nacional de Football47%Draw26%CA Torque27%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Club Nacional de Football47%43%2.132.34+4.1
XDraw26%30%3.853.36-3.8
2CA Torque27%39%3.682.54-12.2

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes66%

ours 1.53book 1.65

No34%

ours 2.90book 2.08

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricClub Nacional de FootballCA TorqueCombined
Goals scored1.672.003.67
Conceded0.831.001.83
Corners11.211.411.3
Cards2.33.05.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Club Nacional de FootballCA Torque
    1Matches in 14 days2
    9.2Days of rest5
    5Table position3
    49.80%Possession47.80%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Club Nacional de Football: a home win is rated at 47%. Bookmakers price this at 2.34.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 2.5

67%1.80
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Club Nacional de Football

  • awayCerro Largo Fútbol Club2:0
  • homeDefensor Sporting Club3:2
  • awayMontevideo Wanderers Fútbol Club1:1
  • homeCA Juventud2:2
  • awayCA Peñarol1:0

CA Torque

  • homeClub Deportivo Maldonado0:2
  • awayCentral Español FC4:1
  • homeLiverpool FC Montevideo3:1
  • homeCerro Largo Fútbol Club2:1
  • awayDefensor Sporting Club3:1

Head to head

  • 05/15/26Primera División2:1
  • 03/28/26Primera División3:2
  • 08/02/25Primera División5:2
  • 06/01/25Primera División2:1
  • 02/02/25Primera División0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1CA Peñarol30195653:2562
2Club Deportivo Maldonado30167746:2755
3CA Torque29165851:3453
4Racing Club de Montevideo301411536:2453
5Club Nacional de Football301541145:3849
6Montevideo Wanderers Fútbol Club311381039:4147
7Liverpool FC Montevideo301210839:2846

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.