Club Llaneros SA — Sociedad Anónima Deportiva América SA, Categoria Primera A

Colombia, Categoria Primera A01:15 AM

Club Llaneros SA

1.6LWLLL

—

Sociedad Anónima Deportiva América SA

2.9WDLWD

Outcome probability

263143

Club Llaneros SA26%Draw31%Sociedad Anónima Deportiva América SA43%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Club Llaneros SA26%28%3.863.52-2.5

XDraw31%33%3.263.00-2.7

2Sociedad Anónima Deportiva América SA43%46%2.302.18-2.5

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricClub Llaneros SASociedad Anónima Deportiva América SACombined

Goals scored1.171.833.00

Conceded1.831.002.83

Corners9.29.79.4

Cards3.22.86.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Plans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Club Llaneros SASociedad Anónima Deportiva América SA
14Table position2
2Matches in 14 days1
8.1Days of rest11
44.80%Possession52.80%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, Sociedad Anónima Deportiva América SA still look stronger — an away win is rated at 43%. Bookmakers price this at 2.18.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Start free Plans