All matches

Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami — FC Cincinnati, MLS

USA, MLS

Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami
3.3LDDDD
—
FC Cincinnati
2.5LDDLL
Outcome probability
602020
Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami60%Draw20%FC Cincinnati20%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami60%1.67—
XDraw20%4.89—
2FC Cincinnati20%5.04—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes79%

ours 1.27

No21%

ours 4.69

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricClub Internacional de Fútbol MiamiFC CincinnatiCombined
Goals scored0.500.170.67
Conceded0.670.501.17
Corners7.510.08.8
Cards4.02.06.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Club Internacional de Fútbol MiamiFC Cincinnati
    4Table position18
    3Matches in 14 days4
    52.00%Possession55.00%
    4.1Days of rest4
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami: a home win is rated at 60%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 3.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami

  • awayColumbus Crew1:2
  • homeSan Diego FC2:2
  • homeNashville SC MLS2:2
  • awayChicago Fire1:1
  • homeAtlanta United FC2:2

FC Cincinnati

  • awayMontreal Impact1:3
  • awayHouston Dynamo2:2
  • homeCharlotte FC3:3
  • awayPhiladelphia Union0:5
  • awayNashville SC MLS0:4

Head to head

  • 05/13/26MLS5:3
  • 11/23/25MLS4:0
  • 07/26/25MLS0:0
  • 07/16/25MLS0:3
  • 08/24/24MLS2:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Vancouver Whitecaps FC26155659:2650
3FC Dallas27138650:4247
4Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami271210564:5046
5New England Revolution27144945:3646
6San Jose Earthquakes27136849:3945
7St. Louis City SC26128645:3644
8Houston Dynamo27135934:3244
9Charlotte FC27127847:3843
10Chicago Fire26126846:3842
11Los Angeles FC28118943:3041
12Philadelphia Union271161054:4439
13Colorado Rapids271131338:3836
14LA Galaxy28991037:4436
15Seattle Sounders FC2698933:3435
16Orlando City SC271041348:6434
17New York City FC27891041:3633
18FC Cincinnati2689955:6433
19New York Red Bulls26961134:4833
20San Diego FC27881147:4732

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.