All matches

Club Guaraní — Club Nacional, Division Profesional

Paraguay, Division Profesional

Club Guaraní
2.6WWDWD
—
Club Nacional
2.6DWWLW
Outcome probability
353232
Club Guaraní35%Draw32%Club Nacional32%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Club Guaraní35%2.83—
XDraw32%3.10—
2Club Nacional32%3.09—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes40%

ours 2.53

No60%

ours 1.66

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricClub GuaraníClub NacionalCombined
Goals scored0.830.831.66
Conceded0.170.330.50
Corners10.812.311.5
Cards1.81.83.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Club GuaraníClub Nacional
    7Table position2
    48.30%Possession51.80%
    7Days of rest7
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Club Guaraní look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 35%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

    The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

    Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

    Start freePlans

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Under 1.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Form and context

Club Guaraní

  • awayClub Sportivo Luqueño1:0
  • awayClub Sportivo Trinidense1:0
  • homeClub Cerro Porteño1:1
  • homeCD Recoleta2:0
  • awayClub Olimpia1:1

Club Nacional

  • homeSportivo Ameliano1:1
  • homeClub 2 de Mayo3:0
  • awayClub Rubio Ñú1:0
  • awayClub Cerro Porteño0:1
  • homeClub Libertad3:0

Head to head

  • 08/09/26Division Profesional0:0
  • 05/03/26Division Profesional0:1
  • 03/01/26Division Profesional1:1
  • 09/21/25Division Profesional2:0
  • 07/12/25Division Profesional0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Club Olimpia33225655:2671
2Club Nacional341613550:2961
3Club Cerro Porteño331671045:3155
4Club Libertad341661253:3954
5Club Sportivo Trinidense3414101050:3552
6Sportivo Ameliano341215741:3451
7Club Guaraní341213940:3249
8Club 2 de Mayo3411111232:4844
9CD Recoleta341061848:5636

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

PlansSign in

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.