All matches

Maldonado — Liverpool Montevideo, Primera División

Uruguay, Primera División

Maldonado
1.8WWLWL
—
Liverpool Montevideo
2.3WDLWD
Outcome probability
392932
Maldonado39%Draw29%Liverpool Montevideo32%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Maldonado39%2.57—
XDraw29%3.46—
2Liverpool Montevideo32%3.11—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes45%

ours 2.23

No55%

ours 1.81

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMaldonadoLiverpool MontevideoCombined
Goals scored1.000.831.83
Conceded0.500.831.33
Corners8.610.69.6
Cards2.82.45.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    MaldonadoLiverpool Montevideo
    2Table position7
    6.1Days of rest6.4
    51.80%Possession49.40%
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Club Deportivo Maldonado look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 39%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Maldonado

  • awayTorque2:0
  • homeCerro Largo2:0
  • awayDefensor Sporting0:1
  • homeMontevideo Wanderers2:0
  • awayJuventud0:2

Liverpool Montevideo

  • awayCentral Espanol2:1
  • homeRacing Montevideo0:0
  • awayTorque1:3
  • homeBoston River1:0
  • awayCerro Largo1:1

Head to head

  • 04/05/26Primera División2:0
  • 09/15/24Primera División0:1
  • 03/03/24Primera División2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Penarol31196654:2663
2Maldonado30167746:2755
3Torque30166852:3554
4Racing Montevideo301411536:2453
5Nacional301541145:3849
6Montevideo Wanderers311381039:4147
7Liverpool Montevideo301210839:2846
8Central Espanol301081232:3938
9Juventud30991235:3936

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.