All matches

Club Deportivo Garcilaso — Los Chankas, Primera División

Peru, Primera División

Club Deportivo Garcilaso
2.4WLWWW
—
Los Chankas
2.0LLLLL
Outcome probability
7118
Club Deportivo Garcilaso71%Draw18%Los Chankas11%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Club Deportivo Garcilaso71%1.42—
XDraw18%5.47—
2Los Chankas11%9.01—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes45%

ours 2.20

No55%

ours 1.83

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricClub Deportivo GarcilasoLos ChankasCombined
Goals scored1.500.672.17
Conceded0.501.832.33
Corners12.08.710.3
Cards2.32.34.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Club Deportivo GarcilasoLos Chankas
    3Table position6
    42.80%Possession55.70%
    8Days of rest9.1
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Club Deportivo Garcilaso look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 71%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Match result: Home

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Club Deportivo Garcilaso

  • homeClub Universitario de Deportes4:0
  • awaySport Boys Association0:1
  • homeClub Atlético Grau4:2
  • awayClub Alianza Lima1:0
  • homeAsociación Civil Real Atlético Garcilaso4:1

Los Chankas

  • homeFC Cajamarca1:2
  • awayClub Sporting Cristal SAC0:5
  • homeJuan Pablo II College3:4
  • awayClub Universitario de Deportes0:3
  • homeFBC Melgar0:3

Head to head

  • 05/04/26Primera División1:0
  • 07/19/25Primera División3:0
  • 02/10/25Primera División2:2
  • 09/29/24Primera División0:1
  • 04/29/24Primera División1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Club Alianza Lima27168344:1856
2Club Universitario de Deportes27147643:3149
3Club Deportivo Garcilaso27146739:2448
4FBC Melgar27137745:2946
5Asociación Civil Real Atlético Garcilaso271431040:3845
6Los Chankas26125935:4441
7Club Cienciano261241045:3940
8Club Alianza Atlético Sullana27117940:3540

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.