All matches

Garcilaso — Sport Huancayo, Primera División

Peru, Primera División

Garcilaso
2.4WLWWW
—
Sport Huancayo
1.6WWWWL
Outcome probability
582219
Garcilaso58%Draw22%Sport Huancayo19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Garcilaso58%50%1.712.00+8.5
XDraw22%26%4.473.83-3.7
2Sport Huancayo19%29%5.213.46-9.7

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.92book 1.70

No48%

ours 2.09book 2.04

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricGarcilasoSport HuancayoCombined
Goals scored2.171.673.84
Conceded0.671.672.34
Corners11.210.510.8
Cards2.53.76.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    GarcilasoSport Huancayo
    3Table position11
    44.20%Possession53.00%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Club Deportivo Garcilaso look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 58%. Bookmakers price this at 2.00.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 1.5

72%1.47
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Garcilaso

  • homeUniversitario de Deportes4:0
  • awaySport Boys0:1
  • homeAtletico Grau4:2
  • awayAlianza Lima1:0
  • homeReal Garcilaso4:1

Sport Huancayo

  • homeUT Cajamarca3:2
  • awayComerciantes Unidos1:0
  • homeSport Boys2:1
  • awayDeportivo Tarma3:1
  • homeUCV Moquegua0:2

Head to head

  • 04/18/26Primera División1:2
  • 08/23/25Primera División1:1
  • 04/05/25Primera División3:0
  • 07/19/24Primera División0:1
  • 02/05/24Primera División0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Alianza Lima27168344:1856
2Universitario de Deportes27147643:3149
3Garcilaso27146739:2448
4Melgar27137745:2946
5Real Garcilaso271431040:3845
6Los Chankas27126936:4542
7Cienciano271251046:4041
8Alianza Atletico Sullana27117940:3540
9Sporting Cristal271151148:4038
10Sport Boys27108929:2638
11Sport Huancayo271051237:4435
12Juan Pablo II27971142:5234
13Atletico Grau27951326:3132

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.