All matches

Club Cerro Porteño — Sportivo Ameliano, Division Profesional

Paraguay, Division Profesional

Club Cerro Porteño
3.0LWDWW
—
Sportivo Ameliano
1.9DDWWL
Outcome probability
492922
Club Cerro Porteño49%Draw29%Sportivo Ameliano22%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Club Cerro Porteño49%2.04—
XDraw29%3.41—
2Sportivo Ameliano22%4.60—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes43%

ours 2.30

No57%

ours 1.77

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricClub Cerro PorteñoSportivo AmelianoCombined
Goals scored0.670.831.50
Conceded0.500.501.00
Corners10.311.811.0
Cards0.81.82.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Club Cerro PorteñoSportivo Ameliano
    3Table position6
    51.50%Possession50.00%
    7Days of rest7
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Club Cerro Porteño: a home win is rated at 49%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 1.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Club Cerro Porteño

  • awayClub Sportivo Trinidense1:2
  • homeClub Rubio Ñú1:0
  • awayClub Guaraní1:1
  • homeClub Nacional1:0
  • awayCD Recoleta3:1

Sportivo Ameliano

  • awayClub Nacional1:1
  • awayClub Libertad1:1
  • homeClub Sportivo San Lorenzo1:0
  • awayClub Sportivo Luqueño2:1
  • homeClub Sportivo Trinidense0:3

Head to head

  • 08/08/26Division Profesional0:1
  • 04/24/26Division Profesional1:1
  • 02/25/26Division Profesional1:0
  • 09/20/25Division Profesional2:0
  • 07/12/25Division Profesional1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Club Olimpia33225655:2671
2Club Nacional341613550:2961
3Club Cerro Porteño331671045:3155
4Club Libertad341661253:3954
5Club Sportivo Trinidense3414101050:3552
6Sportivo Ameliano341215741:3451
7Club Guaraní341213940:3249
8Club 2 de Mayo3411111232:4844

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.