Club Cerro Porteño — Club 2 de Mayo, Division Profesional

Paraguay, Division Profesional10:00 PM

Club Cerro Porteño

3.0LWDWW

—

Club 2 de Mayo

1.9DLLWD

Outcome probability

532819

Club Cerro Porteño53%Draw28%Club 2 de Mayo19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Club Cerro Porteño53%64%1.901.57-11.2

XDraw28%26%3.533.85+2.3

2Club 2 de Mayo19%17%5.225.80+1.9

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes40%

ours 2.50book 2.05

No60%

ours 1.67book 1.67

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricClub Cerro PorteñoClub 2 de MayoCombined

Goals scored1.331.172.50

Conceded0.831.672.50

Corners10.810.210.5

Cards0.72.73.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Plans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Club Cerro PorteñoClub 2 de Mayo
3Table position8
49.00%Possession53.80%
9Days of rest9.1
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Club Cerro Porteño look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 53%. Bookmakers price this at 1.57.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Start free Plans