Both teams to score
Yes47%
ours 2.14
No53%
ours 1.88
All matches
—
Club Atlético Nacional SA — Club Deportes Tolima SA, Categoria Primera A
Colombia, Categoria Primera A
Club Atlético Nacional SA
3.4WDLWWClub Deportes Tolima SA
2.9DDLLWOutcome probability
572617
Club Atlético Nacional SA57%Draw26%Club Deportes Tolima SA17%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Club Atlético Nacional SA1.75—
XDraw3.90—
2Club Deportes Tolima SA5.80—
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricClub Atlético Nacional SAClub Deportes Tolima SACombined
Goals scored2.330.833.16
Conceded1.171.002.17
Corners10.210.010.1
Cards2.32.85.1
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.
- 1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Club Atlético Nacional SAClub Deportes Tolima SA1Table position37Days of rest4.265.70%Possession56.60%2Matches in 14 days2 - 2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Club Atlético Nacional SA look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 57%.
Most likely scorelines:…
- 3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pickRisky pickThe full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Second half total: Over 0.5
70%
Form and context
Club Atlético Nacional SA
- homeCD Popular Junior FC SA3:1
- homeMillonarios FC SA1:1
- awayClub Llaneros SA0:2
- awayCD La Equidad Seguros SA3:2
- homeRionegro Águilas SA2:0
Club Deportes Tolima SA
- awayFortaleza CEIF FC2:2
- homeSociedad Anónima Deportiva América SA1:1
- awayOnce Caldas SA0:1
- awayIndependiente Santa Fe SA0:1
- awayClub Llaneros SA2:1
Head to head
- 05/23/26Categoria Primera A3:1
- 05/16/26Categoria Primera A1:0
- 03/02/26Categoria Primera A0:1
- 08/02/25Categoria Primera A0:0
- 03/20/25Categoria Primera A4:3
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Club Atlético Nacional SA35252870:3177
Club Atlético Nacional SA35252870:31772
Sociedad Anónima Deportiva América SA32177848:2658
Sociedad Anónima Deportiva América SA32177848:26583Club Deportes Tolima SA341510946:3455
Club Deportes Tolima SA341510946:34554
Independiente Santa Fe SA341315653:3654
Independiente Santa Fe SA341315653:36545
CD Popular Junior FC SA351581253:4553
CD Popular Junior FC SA351581253:4553