All matches

Club América — Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente, Liga MX

Mexico, Liga MX

Club América
2.8WDLWW
—
Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente
2.2LDLWL
Outcome probability
612217
Club América61%Draw22%Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente17%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Club América61%1.65—
XDraw22%4.56—
2Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente17%5.73—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.82

No45%

ours 2.22

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricClub AméricaClub Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de CalienteCombined
Goals scored1.000.671.67
Conceded0.670.831.50
Corners9.013.011.0
Cards1.52.54.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Club AméricaClub Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente
    2Table position8
    51.00%Possession36.00%
    3.2Days of rest3
    3Matches in 14 days3
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Club América look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 61%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Club América

  • awayClub Necaxa4:2
  • homeCD Guadalajara2:2
  • awayCruz Azul FC3:4
  • homePuebla FC2:0
  • awayFC Juárez2:1

Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente

  • homeCSyD Atlas de Guadalajara2:3
  • awayCF Pachuca2:2
  • homeQuerétaro FC0:1
  • homeClub Universidad Nacional2:0
  • awayCD Guadalajara2:5

Head to head

  • 01/10/26Liga MX0:0
  • 07/17/25Liga MX3:1
  • 01/17/25Liga MX1:1
  • 11/22/24Liga MX2:2
  • 10/24/24Liga MX2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Deportivo Toluca FC1062223:1220
2Club América962121:1020
3CD Guadalajara1053217:1018
4Querétaro FC952213:817
5Club León1052314:1117
6CSyD Atlas de Guadalajara1052316:1717
7Cruz Azul FC1051419:1816
8Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente942314:1314
9Puebla FC1042411:1214
10CF Monterrey941416:1413

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.