Club América — CF Pachuca, Liga MX

Mexico, Liga MXOctober 25 at 11:00 PM

Club América

2.8WDLWW

—

CF Pachuca

2.1LDWWD

Outcome probability

572420

Club América57%Draw24%CF Pachuca20%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Club América57%1.77—

XDraw24%4.21—

2CF Pachuca20%5.08—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.97

No49%

ours 2.04

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricClub AméricaCF PachucaCombined

Goals scored1.500.832.33

Conceded1.330.501.83

Corners11.011.311.2

Cards1.72.74.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Club AméricaCF Pachuca
2Table position11
2Matches in 14 days3
53.00%Possession49.00%
3.9Days of rest3.8
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Club América look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 57%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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