Club Alianza Lima — Club Atlético Grau, Primera División

Peru, Primera DivisiónOctober 18 at 01:30 AM

Club Alianza Lima

3.4WLDLD

—

Club Atlético Grau

1.6LWLWW

Outcome probability

7715

Club Alianza Lima77%Draw15%Club Atlético Grau8%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Club Alianza Lima77%1.30—

XDraw15%6.55—

2Club Atlético Grau8%12.97—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes32%

ours 3.09

No68%

ours 1.48

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricClub Alianza LimaClub Atlético GrauCombined

Goals scored0.831.672.50

Conceded0.831.502.33

Corners9.29.89.5

Cards1.42.43.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Club Alianza LimaClub Atlético Grau
1Table position13
6.1Days of rest9.2
61.20%Possession45.00%
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Club Alianza Lima: a home win is rated at 77%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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