All matches

Chelsea FC — Tottenham Hotspur FC, Premier League

England, Premier League

Chelsea FC
2.8LDLWW
—
Tottenham Hotspur FC
1.8LDDLL
Outcome probability
562419
Chelsea FC56%Draw24%Tottenham Hotspur FC19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Chelsea FC56%1.78—
XDraw24%4.10—
2Tottenham Hotspur FC19%5.15—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.67

No40%

ours 2.50

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricChelsea FCTottenham Hotspur FCCombined
Goals scored1.170.331.50
Conceded1.670.832.50
Corners12.312.812.5
Cards1.51.02.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Chelsea FCTottenham Hotspur FC
    10Table position20
    1Matches in 14 days2
    7.2Days of rest4.9
    49.80%Possession60.80%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Chelsea FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 56%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Chelsea FC

  • awayBrentford FC0:3
  • homeHull City AFC2:2
  • awayArsenal FC1:2
  • homeBrighton & Hove Albion FC4:3
  • awayFulham FC3:2

Tottenham Hotspur FC

  • homeAston Villa FC2:3
  • homeEverton FC0:0
  • awayNottingham Forest FC0:0
  • homeNewcastle United FC0:2
  • awayBrentford FC0:3

Head to head

  • 05/19/26Premier League2:1
  • 11/01/25Premier League1:0
  • 04/03/25Premier League1:0
  • 12/08/24Premier League4:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8Hull City AFC52216:48
9Newcastle United FC52219:98
10Chelsea FC521210:127
11Ipswich Town FC52037:116
12Manchester United FC51228:85
13Nottingham Forest FC51224:55
14Sunderland AFC51136:104
15Crystal Palace FC51136:114
16Aston Villa FC51134:94
17AFC Bournemouth50326:83
18Coventry City FC51041:103
19Fulham FC50235:82
20Tottenham Hotspur FC50232:82

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.