All matches

Charlton Athletic FC — Norwich City FC, Championship

England, Championship

Charlton Athletic FC
1.5LDDLD
—
Norwich City FC
1.7LLWWL
Outcome probability
302941
Charlton Athletic FC30%Draw29%Norwich City FC41%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Charlton Athletic FC30%3.29—
XDraw29%3.44—
2Norwich City FC41%2.47—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes49%

ours 2.02

No51%

ours 1.98

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCharlton Athletic FCNorwich City FCCombined
Goals scored0.171.331.50
Conceded0.501.502.00
Corners12.09.010.5
Cards1.32.33.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Charlton Athletic FCNorwich City FC
    10Table position17
    38.00%Possession53.00%
    7Days of rest6.9
    3Matches in 14 days3
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Norwich City FC travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 41%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Charlton Athletic FC

  • awayCardiff City FC1:3
  • homePortsmouth FC0:0
  • homeQueens Park Rangers FC0:0
  • awayStoke City FC0:4
  • awayWest Bromwich Albion FC1:1

Norwich City FC

  • homeBolton Wanderers FC3:4
  • awayMiddlesbrough FC3:4
  • homeBirmingham City FC2:1
  • awaySheffield United FC3:1
  • awayStoke City FC0:1

Head to head

  • 03/21/26Championship0:1
  • 12/26/25Championship0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8Stoke City FC841313:1213
9Bristol City FC841311:1213
10Charlton Athletic FC83327:1012
11Birmingham City FC825112:1111
12Millwall FC832315:1511
13Lincoln City FC83237:811
14Wrexham FC82429:1210
15Bolton Wanderers FC831411:1510
16Blackburn Rovers FC823312:129
17Norwich City FC830516:179
18Sheffield United FC82339:119
19Portsmouth FC72239:108

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.