All matches

Charlton Athletic FC — Bristol City FC, Championship

England, Championship

Charlton Athletic FC
1.5LDDLD
—
Bristol City FC
1.8WLLWW
Outcome probability
343036
Charlton Athletic FC34%Draw30%Bristol City FC36%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Charlton Athletic FC34%2.96—
XDraw30%3.32—
2Bristol City FC36%2.77—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes42%

ours 2.36

No58%

ours 1.73

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCharlton Athletic FCBristol City FCCombined
Goals scored0.501.502.00
Conceded1.331.332.66
Corners11.010.710.8
Cards1.51.53.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Charlton Athletic FCBristol City FC
    39.50%Possession48.20%
    10Table position9
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, Bristol City FC still look stronger — an away win is rated at 36%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

68%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Charlton Athletic FC

  • awayCardiff City FC1:3
  • homePortsmouth FC0:0
  • homeQueens Park Rangers FC0:0
  • awayStoke City FC0:4
  • awayWest Bromwich Albion FC1:1

Bristol City FC

  • homeWatford FC1:0
  • homeLincoln City FC0:1
  • awaySouthampton FC1:4
  • awayBurnley FC2:1
  • awayPreston North End FC3:1

Head to head

  • 04/03/26Championship1:2
  • 08/16/25Championship0:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7Queens Park Rangers FC834110:713
8Stoke City FC841313:1213
9Bristol City FC841311:1213
10Charlton Athletic FC83327:1012
11Birmingham City FC825112:1111
12Millwall FC832315:1511

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.