Ceará SC — Criciuma EC, Serie B

Brazil, Serie BOctober 8 at 10:30 PM

Ceará SC

1.7DWDLW

—

Criciuma EC

2.0WLLLW

Outcome probability

412930

Ceará SC41%Draw29%Criciuma EC30%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Ceará SC41%2.44—

XDraw29%3.39—

2Criciuma EC30%3.38—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes43%

ours 2.31

No57%

ours 1.76

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCeará SCCriciuma ECCombined

Goals scored1.330.832.16

Conceded1.171.332.50

Corners11.610.411.0

Cards2.82.45.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Ceará SCCriciuma EC
15Table position5
49.80%Possession62.00%
5.4Days of rest6
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Ceará SC: a home win is rated at 41%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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