CD Universitario — CA Independiente de La Chorrera, LPF

Panama, LPFOctober 17 at 11:15 PM

CD Universitario

1.5WDLDD

—

CA Independiente de La Chorrera

1.9LWDLL

Outcome probability

323533

CD Universitario32%Draw35%CA Independiente de La Chorrera33%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1CD Universitario32%3.12—

XDraw35%2.85—

2CA Independiente de La Chorrera33%3.04—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes49%

ours 2.05

No51%

ours 1.95

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

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Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCD UniversitarioCA Independiente de La ChorreraCombined

Goals scored0.501.001.50

Conceded0.501.502.00

Corners13.810.011.9

Cards2.81.34.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
CD UniversitarioCA Independiente de La Chorrera
7.9Days of rest7
8Table position9
52.50%Possession56.30%
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
The sides are closely matched, and a draw is likelier than usual at 35%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

70%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

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Form and context