CD Universidad Católica — Audax Italiano La Florida SADP, Primera División

Chile, Primera DivisiónOctober 10 at 11:00 PM

CD Universidad Católica

2.8WWWWL

—

Audax Italiano La Florida SADP

1.9WWLDD

Outcome probability

611820

CD Universidad Católica61%Draw18%Audax Italiano La Florida SADP20%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1CD Universidad Católica61%1.63—

XDraw18%5.42—

2Audax Italiano La Florida SADP20%4.98—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 2.00

No50%

ours 2.00

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCD Universidad CatólicaAudax Italiano La Florida SADPCombined

Goals scored2.001.003.00

Conceded1.171.332.50

Corners10.59.710.1

Cards2.33.25.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
CD Universidad CatólicaAudax Italiano La Florida SADP
2Table position11
46.70%Possession45.30%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour CD Universidad Católica: a home win is rated at 61%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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