CD Sport Huancayo — Club Alianza Atlético Sullana, Primera División

Peru, Primera DivisiónOctober 24 at 05:45 PM

CD Sport Huancayo

1.6WWWWL

—

Club Alianza Atlético Sullana

2.3WLWWW

Outcome probability

422830

CD Sport Huancayo42%Draw28%Club Alianza Atlético Sullana30%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1CD Sport Huancayo42%2.38—

XDraw28%3.57—

2Club Alianza Atlético Sullana30%3.33—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.95

No49%

ours 2.06

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCD Sport HuancayoClub Alianza Atlético SullanaCombined

Goals scored1.501.673.17

Conceded0.671.171.84

Corners9.39.39.3

Cards4.02.36.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
CD Sport HuancayoClub Alianza Atlético Sullana
1Matches in 14 days2
11Table position8
8Days of rest5.9
49.50%Possession53.80%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
CD Sport Huancayo look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 42%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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