All matches

CD O'Higgins — CD Cobresal, Primera División

Chile, Primera División

CD O'Higgins
1.9LWLLD
—
CD Cobresal
1.5WLWDL
Outcome probability
552025
CD O'Higgins55%Draw20%CD Cobresal25%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1CD O'Higgins55%1.82—
XDraw20%5.05—
2CD Cobresal25%3.98—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.67

No40%

ours 2.49

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCD O'HigginsCD CobresalCombined
Goals scored1.001.332.33
Conceded1.331.673.00
Corners10.611.210.9
Cards2.62.24.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    CD O'HigginsCD Cobresal
    12Table position16
    51.40%Possession42.00%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    CD O'Higgins look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 55%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 3.5

68%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

CD O'Higgins

  • awayAudax Italiano La Florida SADP0:1
  • homeCD Unión La Calera2:1
  • awayCD Universidad Católica2:3
  • homeCD Palestino0:1
  • awayCSD Colo-Colo2:2

CD Cobresal

  • homeCD Coquimbo Unido3:2
  • awayClub Deportes Limache0:3
  • homeCD Palestino2:0
  • awayCD La Serena3:3
  • homeCD Concepción0:2

Head to head

  • 04/19/26Primera División3:2
  • 08/16/25Primera División1:0
  • 03/16/25Primera División0:0
  • 11/02/24Primera División1:3
  • 05/26/24Primera División2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10CD Coquimbo Unido2285931:3129
11Audax Italiano La Florida SADP2377926:3128
12CD O'Higgins23831228:3627
13CD Huachipato21741029:3925
14CD Unión La Calera23651223:3523
15CD Universidad de Concepción22641217:3722
16CD Cobresal23631432:4721

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.