All matches

Motagua — Atletico Choloma, Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras

Honduras, Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras

Motagua
2.8LWDWW
—
Atletico Choloma
1.1WLDLW
Outcome probability
7417
Motagua74%Draw17%Atletico Choloma9%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Motagua74%1.35—
XDraw17%5.94—
2Atletico Choloma9%10.81—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.92

No48%

ours 2.09

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMotaguaAtletico CholomaCombined
Goals scored1.330.832.16
Conceded1.000.671.67
Corners12.710.011.3
Cards0.00.00.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    MotaguaAtletico Choloma
    4Table position10
    55.60%Possession51.30%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour CD Motagua: a home win is rated at 74%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 8.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Motagua

  • awayReal Espana0:1
  • homePolicia National1:0
  • awayAtletico Independiente0:0
  • homeOlancho2:1
  • homeLobos UPNFM4:1

Atletico Choloma

  • homeEstrella Roja2:0
  • awayLobos UPNFM0:1
  • homeOlancho0:0
  • awayReal Espana1:2
  • homePlatense2:0

Head to head

  • 04/26/26Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras5:1
  • 03/08/26Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras3:1
  • 11/09/25Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras2:1
  • 09/10/25Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras3:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Olimpia852119:717
3Marathon852114:617
4Motagua841311:813
5Policia National832310:611
6Olancho82516:511
7Estrella Roja823313:169
8Atletico Independiente82337:119
9Lobos UPNFM82247:128
10Atletico Choloma82156:87
11Juticalpa82068:196
12Platense81256:185

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.