All matches

CD Guabirá — CD Oriente Petrolero, LFPB

Bolivia, LFPB

CD Guabirá
1.8WLDLD
—
CD Oriente Petrolero
1.6WLLDW
Outcome probability
542323
CD Guabirá54%Draw23%CD Oriente Petrolero23%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1CD Guabirá54%1.85—
XDraw23%4.37—
2CD Oriente Petrolero23%4.31—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes67%

ours 1.49

No33%

ours 3.02

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCD GuabiráCD Oriente PetroleroCombined
Goals scored1.001.832.83
Conceded2.001.173.17
Corners8.68.68.6
Cards3.03.46.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    CD GuabiráCD Oriente Petrolero
    7Table position5
    6.2Days of rest8
    49.80%Possession51.60%
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour CD Guabirá: a home win is rated at 54%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

CD Guabirá

  • homeClub Aurora3:1
  • awayClub Always Ready0:6
  • homeClub Real Potosí1:1
  • awayClub Independiente Petrolero1:3
  • homeClub Blooming1:1

CD Oriente Petrolero

  • awayCD Real Tomayapo2:0
  • awayClub Real Potosí1:2
  • homeClub Always Ready1:2
  • awayCD Gualberto Villarroel Deportivo San José3:3
  • homeCD Cultural San Antonio de Bulo Bulo4:0

Head to head

  • 05/15/26LFPB2:2
  • 11/03/25LFPB0:4
  • 05/25/25LFPB1:3
  • 11/01/24LFPB2:0
  • 07/21/24LFPB1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Club The Strongest20126239:2242
4Club Real Potosí2088427:1432
5CD Oriente Petrolero2093836:2730
6Club Aurora2079431:2730
7CD Guabirá2085732:3929
8Club Blooming2069530:2227
9CA Nacional Potosí2083930:2827

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.