CD Feirense — SL Benfica II, LigaPro

Portugal, LigaProOctober 24 at 01:00 PM

CD Feirense

1.6LLLLL

—

SL Benfica II

2.0WLLDW

Outcome probability

342739

CD Feirense34%Draw27%SL Benfica II39%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1CD Feirense34%2.91—

XDraw27%3.69—

2SL Benfica II39%2.59—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes43%

ours 2.33

No57%

ours 1.75

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCD FeirenseSL Benfica IICombined

Goals scored0.171.001.17

Conceded1.330.832.16

Corners9.610.29.9

Cards1.62.23.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
CD FeirenseSL Benfica II
18Table position7
13Days of rest11.8
55.20%Possession52.40%
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, SL Benfica II still look stronger — an away win is rated at 39%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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