All matches

CD Cuenca — CD Técnico Universitario, Primera Categoría Serie A

Ecuador, Primera Categoría Serie A

CD Cuenca
1.6DDLWL
—
CD Técnico Universitario
1.1DWLLW
Outcome probability
532621
CD Cuenca53%Draw26%CD Técnico Universitario21%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1CD Cuenca53%1.90—
XDraw26%3.79—
2CD Técnico Universitario21%4.80—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes41%

ours 2.45

No59%

ours 1.69

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCD CuencaCD Técnico UniversitarioCombined
Goals scored0.671.001.67
Conceded1.001.002.00
Corners9.89.89.8
Cards1.82.64.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    CD CuencaCD Técnico Universitario
    48.00%Possession39.40%
    12Table position14
    7Days of rest7
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    CD Cuenca look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 53%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Most corners: Home

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

CD Cuenca

  • homeMushuc Runa SC1:1
  • awayLiga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito1:1
  • homeCA Libertad0:1
  • homeGuayaquil City FC1:0
  • awayCD Técnico Universitario1:3

CD Técnico Universitario

  • homeDelfin SC1:1
  • awayCD Leones del Norte1:0
  • homeLiga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito1:3
  • awayDelfin SC0:1
  • homeCD Cuenca3:1

Head to head

  • 08/29/26Primera Categoría Serie A1:3
  • 05/02/26Primera Categoría Serie A2:1
  • 09/14/25Primera Categoría Serie A2:0
  • 05/17/25Primera Categoría Serie A2:0
  • 10/05/24Primera Categoría Serie A1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10Mushuc Runa SC319121036:3939
11CS Emelec311091226:3639
12CD Cuenca311071426:3837
13Orense SC31961637:4933
14CD Técnico Universitario311031829:4333
15Delfin SC31781620:3229
16Manta FC31661919:4324

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.