All matches

Cardiff Metropolitan University — Trefelin, Welsh Premier League

Wales, Welsh Premier League

Cardiff Metropolitan University
1.9WDLDD
—
Trefelin
1.5LDLLD
Outcome probability
7019
Cardiff Metropolitan University70%Draw19%Trefelin11%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Cardiff Metropolitan University70%1.43—
XDraw19%5.25—
2Trefelin11%8.88—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes35%

ours 2.85

No65%

ours 1.54

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCardiff Metropolitan UniversityTrefelinCombined
Goals scored1.000.501.50
Conceded1.001.672.67
Corners11.210.610.9
Cards1.41.02.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Cardiff Metropolitan UniversityTrefelin
    7Table position14
    3Matches in 14 days2
    45.00%Possession39.80%
    6.2Days of rest6.2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Cardiff Metropolitan University FC: a home win is rated at 70%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Cardiff Metropolitan University

  • homeHaverfordwest1:0
  • homeCaernarfon Town2:2
  • awayConnah's Quay0:1
  • awayFlint Town United1:1
  • homeCambrian & Clydach Vale2:2

Trefelin

  • homeTNS1:3
  • awayBriton Ferry Llansawel1:1
  • homeCambrian & Clydach Vale0:4
  • homePenybont0:1
  • awayHolywell Town1:1

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5Colwyn Bay1171321:1422
6Barry Town United1171326:2022
7Cardiff Metropolitan University1153322:1318
8Cambrian & Clydach Vale1153321:2318
9Llandudno1151521:1816
10Airbus UK1150618:1715
11Haverfordwest113177:1610
12Briton Ferry Llansawel1123610:209
13Flint Town United1112811:245
14Trefelin110385:273
15Ammanford110387:313
16Holywell Town1102912:362

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.