All matches

Cardiff City FC — Watford FC, Championship

England, Championship

Cardiff City FC
1.3WLDLL
—
Watford FC
1.3LLWLL
Outcome probability
462827
Cardiff City FC46%Draw28%Watford FC27%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Cardiff City FC46%2.19—
XDraw28%3.59—
2Watford FC27%3.77—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.89

No47%

ours 2.12

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCardiff City FCWatford FCCombined
Goals scored0.830.501.33
Conceded1.171.172.34
Corners10.08.69.3
Cards2.82.85.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Cardiff City FCWatford FC
    64.00%Possession51.00%
    21Table position20
    3.2Days of rest3.2
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Cardiff City FC: a home win is rated at 46%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Cardiff City FC

  • homeCharlton Athletic FC3:1
  • awayBolton Wanderers FC0:1
  • homeStoke City FC1:1
  • awayPortsmouth FC0:2
  • awayQueens Park Rangers FC1:2

Watford FC

  • awayBristol City FC0:1
  • homeStoke City FC1:2
  • homePreston North End FC2:1
  • awayWest Bromwich Albion FC0:1
  • awaySwansea City AFC0:2

Head to head

  • 01/14/25Championship1:1
  • 12/29/24Championship2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
18Sheffield United FC82339:119
19Portsmouth FC72239:108
20Watford FC82247:108
21Cardiff City FC814310:127
22Derby County FC81257:145
23Preston North End FC81168:154

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.