All matches

Cardiff City FC — Birmingham City FC, Championship

England, Championship

Cardiff City FC
1.3WLDLL
—
Birmingham City FC
1.9DWLDD
Outcome probability
332938
Cardiff City FC33%Draw29%Birmingham City FC38%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Cardiff City FC33%3.02—
XDraw29%3.50—
2Birmingham City FC38%2.61—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.78

No44%

ours 2.29

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCardiff City FCBirmingham City FCCombined
Goals scored0.670.831.50
Conceded0.500.831.33
Corners10.311.711.0
Cards2.72.35.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Cardiff City FCBirmingham City FC
    21Table position11
    3Matches in 14 days2
    64.00%Possession46.00%
    7.1Days of rest7
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, Birmingham City FC still look stronger — an away win is rated at 38%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Cardiff City FC

  • homeCharlton Athletic FC3:1
  • awayBolton Wanderers FC0:1
  • homeStoke City FC1:1
  • awayPortsmouth FC0:2
  • awayQueens Park Rangers FC1:2

Birmingham City FC

  • homeMiddlesbrough FC2:2
  • awayDerby County FC2:1
  • awayNorwich City FC1:2
  • homeWolverhampton Wanderers FC2:2
  • homeSouthampton FC1:1

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9Bristol City FC841311:1213
10Charlton Athletic FC83327:1012
11Birmingham City FC825112:1111
12Millwall FC832315:1511
13Lincoln City FC83237:811
14Wrexham FC82429:1210
15Bolton Wanderers FC831411:1510
16Blackburn Rovers FC823312:129
17Norwich City FC830516:179
18Sheffield United FC82339:119
19Portsmouth FC72239:108
20Watford FC82247:108
21Cardiff City FC814310:127
22Derby County FC81257:145
23Preston North End FC81168:154

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.