Welsh Premier League

Caernarfon Town FCНВНВВ
—
Barry Town United FCППНВП
1Caernarfon Town FC47%model2.11
XDraw25%model4.01
2Barry Town United FC28%model3.63

Goals

Corners

Cards

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

xG

Shots

Shots on target

Expected goals, corners, cards and referee data — with a subscription

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calculated at 21:11, 125 мс

Outcome

Caernarfon Town FC47%
Draw25%
Barry Town United FC28%

Corners

Subscribers only

Total 2.5

Subscribers only

Both teams to score

Subscribers only

Model vs bookmaker value

Where the model disagrees with the bookmaker most.

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Model take on Caernarfon Town FC vs Barry Town United FC

Built from the numbers: expected goals, form, rest, absences and referee records.

Caernarfon Town FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 47%.

Most likely scorelines:…

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What drives the numbers

Form, rest, fixture load and league position

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Recent matches

Caernarfon Town FC

DWDWW
  • awayCardiff Metropolitan University FC2:2
  • homeCambrian & Clydach Vale FC9:1
  • awayLlandudno FC1:1
  • awayAmmanford AFC5:0
  • homeFlint Town United FC3:0

Barry Town United FC

LLDWL
  • homeConnah's Quay Nomads FC1:4
  • awayColwyn Bay FC2:5
  • homeAmmanford AFC2:2
  • homeLlandudno FC4:1
  • awayThe New Saints FC0:1

Head to head — score from the perspective of Caernarfon Town FC

  • 03/21/26away · Welsh Premier League1:2L
  • 02/14/26home · Welsh Premier League0:2L
  • 10/11/25away · Welsh Premier League2:2D
  • 09/07/25home · Welsh Premier League3:1W
  • 04/26/25home · Welsh Premier League5:2W

League table

League table

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
…
2Penybont FC1183022:927
3Connah's Quay Nomads FC1181227:825
4Caernarfon Town FC1172235:1323
5Colwyn Bay FC1171321:1422
6Barry Town United FC1171326:2022
7Cambrian & Clydach Vale FC1153321:2318
8Llandudno FC1151521:1816
…

Three scenarios

One pick from each odds range

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Markets in detail

Probabilities are a statistical estimate from past matches, not a prediction of the result.