All matches

Cádiz CF — Agrupación Deportiva Ceuta FC, Segunda División

Spain, Segunda División

Cádiz CF
1.1DLLLD
—
Agrupación Deportiva Ceuta FC
1.7WDLLL
Outcome probability
372836
Cádiz CF37%Draw28%Agrupación Deportiva Ceuta FC36%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Cádiz CF37%2.74—
XDraw28%3.59—
2Agrupación Deportiva Ceuta FC36%2.81—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.94

No48%

ours 2.06

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCádiz CFAgrupación Deportiva Ceuta FCCombined
Goals scored0.330.831.16
Conceded0.670.831.50
Corners8.38.38.3
Cards4.02.36.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Cádiz CFAgrupación Deportiva Ceuta FC
    2Matches in 14 days1
    20Table position21
    7Days of rest7.1
    54.70%Possession55.00%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Cádiz CF look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 37%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

    The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

    Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

    Start freePlans

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 3.5

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Form and context

Cádiz CF

  • awayCD Tenerife1:1
  • homeGirona FC1:2
  • homeUD Las Palmas0:1
  • awayUD Almería2:3
  • homeReal Valladolid Club de Fútbol1:1

Agrupación Deportiva Ceuta FC

  • homeReal Sociedad de Fútbol II3:1
  • homeReal Valladolid Club de Fútbol1:1
  • awayBurgos CF1:3
  • homeReal Club Celta de Vigo II0:2
  • awayReal Club Deportivo Mallorca0:3

Head to head

  • 03/28/26Segunda División1:2
  • 09/28/25Segunda División0:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
18Córdoba CF720510:166
19CD Eldense71244:95
20Cádiz CF70437:104
21Agrupación Deportiva Ceuta FC71156:174
22Albacete Balompié70164:121

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

PlansSign in

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.