Torque — Danubio, Primera División

Uruguay, Primera DivisiónOctober 9 at 08:00 PM

Torque

2.5DLWWW

—

Danubio

1.5LDDLL

Outcome probability

602317

Torque60%Draw23%Danubio17%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Torque60%1.66—

XDraw23%4.35—

2Danubio17%6.02—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes47%

ours 2.13

No53%

ours 1.89

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricTorqueDanubioCombined

Goals scored1.670.332.00

Conceded1.001.332.33

Corners11.210.010.6

Cards2.82.25.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
TorqueDanubio
3Table position16
3Matches in 14 days2
3.9Days of rest5.3
50.40%Possession46.80%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour CA Torque: a home win is rated at 60%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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