CA Tigre — CA Tucuman, Primera División

Argentina, Primera DivisiónOctober 25 at 12:00 AM

CA Tigre

1.9LLLDW

—

CA Tucuman

1.3LLWDD

Outcome probability

492922

CA Tigre49%Draw29%CA Tucuman22%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1CA Tigre49%2.04—

XDraw29%3.43—

2CA Tucuman22%4.58—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes37%

ours 2.71

No63%

ours 1.59

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCA TigreCA TucumanCombined

Goals scored0.500.501.00

Conceded1.000.671.67

Corners7.77.07.3

Cards2.71.03.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
CA TigreCA Tucuman
56.50%Possession31.80%
20Table position24
7Days of rest7
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
CA Tigre look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 49%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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