CA Tigre — CA Banfield, Primera División

Argentina, Primera DivisiónOctober 11 at 12:00 AM

CA Tigre

1.9LLLDW

—

CA Banfield

1.5DLLLW

Outcome probability

512821

CA Tigre51%Draw28%CA Banfield21%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1CA Tigre51%1.96—

XDraw28%3.61—

2CA Banfield21%4.68—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes47%

ours 2.15

No53%

ours 1.87

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCA TigreCA BanfieldCombined

Goals scored0.831.001.83

Conceded1.171.672.84

Corners8.08.08.0

Cards2.42.34.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
CA TigreCA Banfield
54.80%Possession29.70%
7.1Days of rest5
20Table position25
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
CA Tigre look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 51%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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