CA Talleres de Córdoba — CA Belgrano de Córdoba, Primera División

Argentina, Primera División08:00 PM

CA Talleres de Córdoba

1.7LWLDD

—

CA Belgrano de Córdoba

2.0WDDDL

Outcome probability

313139

CA Talleres de Córdoba31%Draw31%CA Belgrano de Córdoba39%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1CA Talleres de Córdoba31%39%3.282.57-8.4

XDraw31%33%3.233.02-2.2

2CA Belgrano de Córdoba39%33%2.593.00+5.3

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCA Talleres de CórdobaCA Belgrano de CórdobaCombined

Goals scored1.001.172.17

Conceded1.670.832.50

Corners10.79.310.0

Cards2.51.84.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
CA Talleres de CórdobaCA Belgrano de Córdoba
0Matches in 14 days1
18Table position2
53.70%Possession61.80%
14Days of rest13.9
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
CA Belgrano de Córdoba travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 39%. Bookmakers price this at 3.00.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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