CA Sarmiento — CA River Plate, Primera División

Argentina, Primera DivisiónOctober 7 at 10:30 PM

CA Sarmiento

1.5LDWLW

—

CA River Plate

2.6LWWWD

Outcome probability

272945

CA Sarmiento27%Draw29%CA River Plate45%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1CA Sarmiento27%3.72—

XDraw29%3.50—

2CA River Plate45%2.24—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.81

No45%

ours 2.23

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCA SarmientoCA River PlateCombined

Goals scored1.502.173.67

Conceded1.331.332.66

Corners10.25.57.8

Cards2.31.33.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
CA SarmientoCA River Plate
17Table position5
34.20%Possession61.30%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
CA River Plate travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 45%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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