All matches

CA Rosario Central — CA Huracán, Primera División

Argentina, Primera División

CA Rosario Central
2.9WWDLD
—
CA Huracán
2.0WWDDD
Outcome probability
522820
CA Rosario Central52%Draw28%CA Huracán20%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1CA Rosario Central52%1.94—
XDraw28%3.53—
2CA Huracán20%4.98—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes36%

ours 2.75

No64%

ours 1.57

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCA Rosario CentralCA HuracánCombined
Goals scored0.500.831.33
Conceded0.170.500.67
Corners11.77.39.5
Cards2.72.35.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    CA Rosario CentralCA Huracán
    3Table position10
    59.30%Possession34.80%
    7Days of rest7
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    CA Rosario Central look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 52%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 4.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

CA Rosario Central

  • homeArgentinos Juniors1:0
  • awayCA Tigre1:0
  • homeNewell's Old Boys1:1
  • homeGimnasia y Esgrima La Plata1:2
  • awayCA Talleres de Córdoba2:2

CA Huracán

  • awayCA River Plate2:1
  • homeRacing Club de Avellaneda2:1
  • awayCA Belgrano de Córdoba1:1
  • homeEstudiantes de Río Cuarto1:1
  • homeRiestra0:0

Head to head

  • 04/12/26Primera División1:3
  • 05/18/25Primera División0:1
  • 10/29/16Primera División1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Argentinos Juniors29159534:2354
2CA Belgrano de Córdoba301410635:2352
3CA Rosario Central29157736:2752
4Independiente Rivadavia27156644:3051
5CA River Plate301541142:2949
6Club Atlético Vélez Sarsfield271212333:2248
7CA Boca Juniors271211438:2347
8Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata281441035:3646
9Estudiantes de La Plata271251029:1941
10CA Huracán281011730:2441
11CA Independiente27118835:3141
12Instituto Córdoba25124928:2340

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.