CA River Plate — Estudiantes de Río Cuarto, Primera División

Argentina, Primera DivisiónOctober 11 at 12:00 AM

CA River Plate

2.6LWWWD

—

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto

1.1LLDDL

Outcome probability

7120

CA River Plate71%Draw20%Estudiantes de Río Cuarto9%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1CA River Plate71%1.40—

XDraw20%5.11—

2Estudiantes de Río Cuarto9%10.86—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes27%

ours 3.64

No73%

ours 1.38

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCA River PlateEstudiantes de Río CuartoCombined

Goals scored1.830.332.16

Conceded1.330.832.16

Corners5.49.37.3

Cards1.42.84.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
CA River PlateEstudiantes de Río Cuarto
5Table position30
3.1Days of rest6
71.30%Possession46.80%
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
CA River Plate look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 71%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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