All matches

CA Mineiro — Coritiba FBC, Serie A

Brazil, Serie A

CA Mineiro
2.0DWLWD
—
Coritiba FBC
2.3LDLWW
Outcome probability
562519
CA Mineiro56%Draw25%Coritiba FBC19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1CA Mineiro56%1.77—
XDraw25%4.02—
2Coritiba FBC19%5.35—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.97

No49%

ours 2.03

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCA MineiroCoritiba FBCCombined
Goals scored0.671.171.84
Conceded0.672.002.67
Corners12.312.512.4
Cards1.32.03.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    CA MineiroCoritiba FBC
    3Matches in 14 days2
    7Table position9
    6.1Days of rest5.1
    54.00%Possession45.50%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour CA Mineiro: a home win is rated at 56%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 8.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

CA Mineiro

  • homeChapecoense AF1:1
  • homeFluminense FC3:1
  • awaySão Paulo FC0:2
  • homeEC Vitória2:1
  • awaySC Internacional0:0

Coritiba FBC

  • awayCR Vasco da Gama0:5
  • homeCA Paranaense3:3
  • homeMirassol Futebol Clube1:2
  • awayClube do Remo3:2
  • homeSC Corinthians Paulista2:1

Head to head

  • 04/19/26Serie A0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5EC Bahia281210643:3546
6Cruzeiro EC28136942:4045
7CA Mineiro27117936:3240
8Santos FC Sao Paulo27108941:4038
9Coritiba FBC281081037:4338
10Clube Atlético Bragantino271061133:3136
11São Paulo FC271061132:3036

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.