CA Bucaramanga — CD Popular Junior FC SA, Categoria Primera A

Colombia, Categoria Primera A11:10 PM

CA Bucaramanga

2.5WWDWD

—

CD Popular Junior FC SA

2.6WWLDD

Outcome probability

452926

CA Bucaramanga45%Draw29%CD Popular Junior FC SA26%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1CA Bucaramanga45%2.23—

XDraw29%3.41—

2CD Popular Junior FC SA26%3.88—

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCA BucaramangaCD Popular Junior FC SACombined

Goals scored1.831.673.50

Conceded0.831.001.83

Corners8.09.28.6

Cards3.32.65.9

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
CA BucaramangaCD Popular Junior FC SA
10Table position4
8.9Days of rest3.9
1Matches in 14 days2
37.30%Possession62.00%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
CA Bucaramanga look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 45%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
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