CA Boca Juniors — CA Unión de Santa Fe, Primera División

Argentina, Primera División10:15 PM

CA Boca Juniors

3.1WWDWD

—

CA Unión de Santa Fe

1.6LLWWW

Outcome probability

632215

CA Boca Juniors63%Draw22%CA Unión de Santa Fe15%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1CA Boca Juniors63%1.59—

XDraw22%4.49—

2CA Unión de Santa Fe15%6.80—

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCA Boca JuniorsCA Unión de Santa FeCombined

Goals scored1.672.003.67

Conceded0.831.502.33

Corners9.88.39.1

Cards2.51.84.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
CA Boca JuniorsCA Unión de Santa Fe
7Table position13
57.20%Possession48.20%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour CA Boca Juniors: a home win is rated at 63%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
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