CA Banfield — CA Rosario Central, Primera División

Argentina, Primera División12:15 AM

CA Banfield

1.5DLLLW

—

CA Rosario Central

2.9WWDLD

Outcome probability

232849

CA Banfield23%Draw28%CA Rosario Central49%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1CA Banfield23%24%4.374.24-0.8

XDraw28%30%3.563.31-2.1

2CA Rosario Central49%52%2.041.94-2.5

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes48%

ours 2.07book 1.95

No52%

ours 1.94book 1.76

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCA BanfieldCA Rosario CentralCombined

Goals scored1.171.172.34

Conceded1.670.832.50

Corners7.811.29.5

Cards2.23.25.4

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
CA BanfieldCA Rosario Central
25Table position3
32.80%Possession57.80%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, CA Rosario Central still look stronger — an away win is rated at 49%. Bookmakers price this at 1.94.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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