BV De Graafschap — RKC Waalwijk, Eerste Divisie

Netherlands, Eerste DivisieOctober 23 at 06:00 PM

BV De Graafschap

2.1WLWLL

—

RKC Waalwijk

1.7LWWWD

Outcome probability

392339

BV De Graafschap39%Draw23%RKC Waalwijk39%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1BV De Graafschap39%2.58—

XDraw23%4.42—

2RKC Waalwijk39%2.58—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes67%

ours 1.50

No33%

ours 2.99

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBV De GraafschapRKC WaalwijkCombined

Goals scored0.671.332.00

Conceded0.500.501.00

Corners12.39.310.8

Cards2.01.33.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
BV De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
19Table position7
4Days of rest5.3
46.30%Possession48.30%
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, RKC Waalwijk still look stronger — an away win is rated at 39%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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